@mehdirhasan I respect your feelings on the merits of this issue, but the reality is that more people say Biden should be *more* supportive of Israel than agree with you. https://t.co/nNxFcCRc1X https://t.co/DniwJh1Q2X
Fetterman statement on Israel is I think consistent with my take from a little while ago — he’s a feisty partisan but not particularly interested in edgy leftist ideas. https://t.co/Xna4MoMz3O https://t.co/HJzf2VAiz9
@CaralhoPhilly Sorry, here you go — 49% of Americans favor the current approach and of those who disagree with it most want us to be *more* supportive of Israel. https://t.co/ATHS6Vp982
Suppose you want Joe Biden to try harder to restrain Israel. You are climbing three hills: — More people think Biden has done too little for Israel than too much — Most Americans agree on the merits with Israel’s response — Pre-attack, Americans’ sympathies were with Israel https://t.co/pLg51WP1Mx
Given that structure of opinion, if you show up with premises that evidence little sympathy for Israel — or even that reject its legitimacy altogether — you are unlikely to persuade people and will probably lose the argument.
Staff entryism as an influence on Dem candidates' and electeds' positioning has been a big source of gossip over the past five years; becoming visible on Israel because the principals are refusing to go along and staffers seem surprised.
As far as I know, Khanna has always had banal liberal views on Israel there's no reason anyone should have gone to work for him expecting he'd throw in with the far-left. https://t.co/aotAZO2uDc
I mean this poll clearly shows that: — The median American (44%) thinks Biden has it right. — To the extent people disagree with Biden, more people (32%) want him to be *more* supportive of Israel than want him to be less supportive (24%).
This is, obviously, a tricky situation for Biden because his position on Israel-Palestine is very controversial inside his own coalition (especially the younger, better-educated part of it that exerts disproportionate voice).
Trump is to the right of George W Bush on Israel/Palestine and it's basically the only issue where Biden isn't to the left of where Obama was. The senate passed a unanimous pro-Israel resolution. But the left has high-school students who want to cut class. https://t.co/aonUWxhU8g
@DavidKlion @mattduss I know that neither of you guys sincerely believe this is an issue where policy should be made on the basis of cynical political calculus (the pro-Israel side is clearly more popular!) so why are you pretending and misinforming your audiences?
Both Matt & David have strong feelings on the merits on Israel/Palestine issues, and neither of them sincerely thinks US policy on this should be done on the basis of cynical politics but rather than say that they are doing this weird discourse salting. https://t.co/IucpX1YSwr
On the Dem side it’s different and activist groups on every issue — climate, student loans, Palestine — run around “predicting” (but really threatening) that if they don’t get their way youth turnout will tank. https://t.co/GBDw2I7zIn https://t.co/DDbxzLCrI5
Aid to Israel is more popular than Biden's handling of the Israel/Hamas war which in turn is more popular than Biden's overall rating. https://t.co/bT7Je4ALam
Twitter Blindness means a lot of people don't see the swathe of American opinion that thinks Biden should be more pro-Israel, even though it's larger than the group that thinks he's been too supportive. https://t.co/EvGppK51BC https://t.co/3PJe3N6LMP
Everyone has to do what they think is right, but to me helping Republicans win as a gesture of solidarity with Palestine does not seem like a great idea.
The thing about Rashida Tlaib is she’s Palestinian, it makes perfect sense for her to be mad at Israel and fired-up about it … what’s sus is all the people who *aren’t* Palestinian and seem to care 1000x more about this than any other humanitarian issue.
Now of course one thing we're seeing on Israel/Gaza is the left has decided that if Biden goes to the center on something, they should try to tank his re-election even while conceding Trump is worse. Same dilemma applies on many topics.
The electorate, on balance, is very pro-Israel. https://t.co/zxnNxPnimu
@Jafpro_16 I think polling the general vibes is more telling here. People don’t actually care what happens thousands of miles away but they do have strong feelings that they either want to see leaders stand up for Palestine (a sizable minority of Americans) or for Israel (the majority).
It’s good to distinguish between two claims: 1) War in the Middle East is bad for Biden because it divides his coalition. 2) Given that the war is happening, it’s bad for Biden to be pro-Israel because that alienates some of his voters.
Everything I’ve seen suggests that on net tilting further left on Israel would cost Biden more votes than he gains. The problem is this is just a bad subject for him — he wants to be talking about abortion, prescription drugs, and why Trump’s policies will make inflation worse. https://t.co/AuzsnKPCIp
Trump has a large lead on Israel-Palestine issues, if you choose to believe that’s because Biden hasn’t been dovish enough I can’t stop you from doing that but I will generously choose to believe you’re just pretending because you have strong feelings on the merits. https://t.co/WmkCWXkRxW
Primary challenge to Rep Bowman is going to heavily feature his views on Israel, but I've thought for a long time that this was one of the worst-ever tweets by a congressional Democrat.
Israel is popular and well-liked in the United States but spending money on helping foreigners is unpopular and people don’t want to give more aid. https://t.co/DXJEnQTNWW https://t.co/KoHfN3glPi
My sense is that the passionate debate in the United States is really about vibes — people would like the US government to reject American public opinion and say “Israel is the bad guy!” A non-judgmental policy argument about aid money would be easier to win.
US public opinion is very favorable to Israel. Lots of talk about youth opinion, but even under-thirties are pro-Israel on balance and more to the point the median voter is over fifty! https://t.co/kS48eLk9fo
Biden’s pro-Israel stance will likely accelerate the departure of conservative African-American and Hispanic voters from the Democratic Party. https://t.co/zmD7DQDa0U https://t.co/E16fXfVwuG
Sympathy for Palestinians has risen over the past month, but there's still solid majority support for Israel. Internals show what everyone knows, though — this topic divides Democrats and unites Republicans so having it be salient is bad for Biden. https://t.co/gHO9FbPdvf https://t.co/tshsqvNZvy
I think sincerity is underrated in politics and Torres has probably just been convinced on the merits. But if I were running against Cori Bush or whoever I’d make this exact argument — why are you picking fights over Palestine instead of prioritizing St Louis?
What's cool about @DemMaj4Israel is they just pick candidates they like and then run good ads that have nothing to do with Israel. https://t.co/1dHlOxk5v6 https://t.co/QHPPndKDGM
One early hint as to the direction John Fetterman would take on the US-Israel relationship while in office was his repeated, overt, extremely explicit public pronouncements on the subject during his campaign. https://t.co/vnOx3KRAf4 https://t.co/EEM8imMfl4
Part of the reason Biden's pro-Israel stance can very plausibly Black/Hispanic voters to defect to Trump is that the most antisemitic POC are the ones who *aren't* liberal. It's a broadly inconvenient pattern of facts. https://t.co/zmD7DQCCbm https://t.co/IuyOOkAsCo
@JewishWonk But that's the point — you're talking about people who may just prefer Trump on abortion or LGBT rights so Biden being pro-Israel is a reason to vote Trump even if Trump is also pro-Israel.
I like Fetterman too but if Republicans are excited about the prospect of a Democrat who’s willing to break with the left on Israel, I’d love to introduce them to the President of the United States. https://t.co/nHSZmamwRL
Is Israel committing genocide? 35 percent say yes. Is Israel's response too harsh? 30 percent say yes. https://t.co/vPj6uE14Kn
Look at the age splits and you can really see the impact of social media on the specifics of the "genocide" meme. Among seniors, "Israel is too harsh" gets more support than "Israel is doing genocide." Among under 30s way more people say "genocide" than "too harsh."
Anti-Israel and pro-Israel people are running a joint operation to convince the country that anti-Israel positions are becoming more popular (either as something to celebrate or to fear) but the polling doesn’t really support that. https://t.co/79XGK3zATM
Maybe clearer with the horizontal orientation — polling as of this month has “America supports Israel too much” at roughly where it was in 2007 whereas “America supports Israel too little” has gone up some. https://t.co/4jYFCC4ne3
Fascinating to me that people are talking themselves into this while Trump is campaigning on an explicit promise to deport immigrants who participant in anti-Israel protests. https://t.co/unl3JNB0p4
Guy who's actually not that pro-Israel, but just likes DMFI as a generic pro-moderate pro-electability factional play. [I am the guy]
@chrislhayes @LPDonovan I think what's happening right now is that people who think Biden should be more supportive of Israel outnumber people who think he should be less supportive, but all the "worrying energy" goes into addressing the concerns of the smaller group.
@vanillaopinions @SpecialPuppy1 It’ll generate bad headlines for Biden. More broadly, any activity of any kind that raises the salience of Israel/Palestine issues probably helps Trump just like anything that raises the salience of abortion helps Biden.
This doesn’t mean everything is fine for Biden — he is down in polling averages nationally and in all six key swing states — but the effort to make his problems all about anti-Israel protest voters is incredibly unpersuasive.
It’s interesting that in the 2024 cycle the people most aggressively working to sabotage Biden’s reelection over Israel don’t even deny that Trump would be worse — it sort of leaves us without much to debate.
Around Minute 33 here, the TAP gang talks themselves into the idea that Trump would be better than Biden for Palestine because he wouldn’t let himself get “cucked” by Bibi. This is I think a really dangerous misreading of the situation. https://t.co/FrJXq8odsZ
I understand that a lot of people are really angry at Biden’s Gaza policy. They would like it to be the case that their expressive interest in damaging Biden’s reelection prospects are also serving the objective interests of Palestinians, but it isn’t true.
New annual Gallup survey on Israel/Palestine shows Americans are developing less favorable views of both sides, with Israel falling faster but still in the lead. https://t.co/AS2N1mszk6
Always fair to disagree with any politician’s take, but the leftists claiming to have been *betrayed* by Fetterman on Israel just didn’t pay attention to his explicit public statements. https://t.co/amspa4S4s8
There’s a read where this has just always been Fetterman’s sincere conviction and there’s a read where he cynically took this stance to ensure he wouldn’t face pro-Israel money backing his primary opponent. But either way it was his position back when he was a progressive hero.
This is not only a correct take, but it's particularly important that it's coming from Schumer who bucked Obama on JCPOA and told him congress wouldn't back serious efforts to pressure Israel over settlements.
If you know Schumer at all you know the stance he took this week does not come lightly. He's been deeply committed to pro-Israel politics his whole career, it's a matter of conviction to him. That Netanyahu is making it untenable is something Israelis should think hard about.
@RonBrownstein @brianbeutler Yes but isn’t the upshot of that logic that it’s been a mistake to try to restrain Israel at all? Trump won’t make that error when he’s president, and by not trying he’ll end up facing dramatically *less* criticism from the left over Israel than Biden does.
@ZaidJilani See this is an argument worth having — if you actually think Trump would be better for Palestine, that’s a good reason to vote for Trump! Seems unlikely to me. But I also freely admit I don’t place a high priority on this topic.
@AaronRegunberg I believe that if someone cares passionately about Topic A, they should look at the two candidate and decide which one is better on Topic A and vote for the better candidate. The substance of Israel-Palestine is very complex but the vote choice is easy.
I’m not saying anything about whether or not Democrats should make concessions to leftists. I’m also not saying anything about whether or not leftists should vote for Joe Biden. But Biden is the more progressive candidate, including on Palestine, and people should know that.
I feel like this is a no-win situation where effort expended on pressuring Israel costs Biden support on the right but gains him no credit on the left.
Fetterman was stridently pro-Israel back when progressives loved him because they agreed with him on other issues, the news cycle has now changed but are they not still glad he’s there in the senate on those other causes they used to care about?
This is not unique to Palestine by any means. From Keystone to student loan relief and beyond, the universal left organizing principle is to exclusively attack Democrats. https://t.co/wbcTnK6UWt
The fundamental issue isn't about the stagecraft, it's that pro-Palestine activists have decided they want to help Trump win the election even though they concede that Trump's policies would be worse for Palestinians. It's a vexing situation.
@Sturgeons_Law I’m just going to restate: Most of the strident critics of Biden’s policy toward Israel that I know agree that Trump would be worse on this issue. Yet their activism is directed toward creating bad headlines and bad vibes for Biden, helping the worse candidate win. Vexing!
@Sturgeons_Law That's true, I'm not addressing your argument. I'm simply restating that critics of Biden's Gaza policy generally agree that Trump is worse, but nonetheless are acting to help Trump win. I find this vexing, because I strongly prefer Biden on abortion, climate, taxes, etc.
@Sturgeons_Law @OGWiseman Yes, to be clear I completely agree that anti-Israel people have *succeeded* in their campaign to make Biden look bad and help Trump win. But I think that's bad!
Maybe Dems can refocus on moderate swing voters instead of obsessing over left-defections over Israel?
People seem very excited to have shifted the conversation away from US policy toward Israel and toward a meta-debate about college administrators’ handling of anti-Israel protestors but I’m not really sure who this helps.
The way you win over young voters who disagree with Biden about Gaza is to talk about other issues that young people care about more. https://t.co/f5xlWl33c8
Now what’s true is that protests aimed at increasing the salience of Gaza hurt Biden and help Trump. To me, that is a downside of the protests and I would rather see people protest against red state abortion bans. https://t.co/f5xlWl33c8
I guess it's fine to say you don't care about taxes, prescription drugs, abortion, or climate change so you're going to be a single-issue Palestine voter but it's odd to then turn around and accuse everyone who doesn't agree with that of being some kind of secret far rightist.
I think it's important to distinguish between: — Is Gaza hurting Biden in the eyes of the public because voters are pro-Palestinian? (no) — Does it hurt Biden that many progressive opinion influencers are spending an election year attacking him from the left? (probably) https://t.co/v8H92mi9Ia
Not because @patrickgaspard tweeting Gaza hits on Biden moves voters to Trump, but because there is a large opportunity cost when progressive institutions spend an election year expending resources on work that does not involving beating the right.
Speaking for myself at least, I am not happy about this. I do not want Trump to be president again, and I do believe he would be worse in all respects including on Palestine. That's why I hope people will focus on making the case for Biden and against Biden's opponent.
Anti-Israel leftists hate Joe Biden because he does not agree with them and they think Trump winning will redound to their benefit via some bank shot. Rightist “Jewish Question” guys love Trump. https://t.co/ZggZVPtpRV
I like Fetterman a lot, but what strikes me about him isn’t so much that he “picks fights with the left” as that he doesn’t *duck* fights — a lot of mainstream Democrats strike me as weirdly terrified of mean tweets from leftists. https://t.co/oq7OfhO6sq
Last September, I used John Fetterman as my example of a contemporary version of aughts-style politics. Of course people feel differently about him post-10/7 but I actually think his approach to Israel underscores what I was saying. https://t.co/Xna4MoMz3O
They disagree about Israel, but AOC and Fetterman both support aggressive partisan politics. https://t.co/69AZBUhOx2
Young Biden voters who are on the margins of voting or not voting care dramatically more about the cost of living than about climate, student debt, or Gaza. https://t.co/KyA8BUBcSu
@MattBruenig I suppose so, but looking back it seems like the original construction of the Squad did in fact prioritize the Palestine issue more than the coverage at the time emphasized.
On Israel, there's more money behind the moderate wing. But on most issues the practical influence of money goes in the opposite direction. Frontline candidates fear that moderation will cost money. Jared Golden is not a fundraising star (I think you should give him $$$).
The general progressive financial advantage is in fact a hidden source of strength for pro-Israel groups — it's not just that they have money, it's that they are the only really *reliable* source of moderate money around.
@DavidKlion Because there’s nothing Harris can reasonably do to make anti-Zionists agree with her about Israel! She can court your support on the basis of other issues (Medicaid, abortion, etc) but you just have a big disagreement with her and there’s nothing to say about it.